SHFE Tin Holds Steady at Highs in Afternoon Session; 290,000 Yuan Mark Becomes Bull-Bear Focus Amid Tight Supply-Demand Balance [SMM Tin Midday Review]

This morning, the domestic SHFE tin futures market fluctuated at highs. The most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract opened at 289,360 yuan/mt, down 570 yuan from the previous session's close, but buying interest gradually strengthened later, pushing the price to fluctuate upward. It finally settled near 291,950 yuan/mt around the midday break, up approximately 0.70% from the prior session's settlement price. Trading volume remained active, while open interest saw slight adjustments, indicating some divergence between longs and shorts at current price levels.

Overnight, LME tin prices were slightly under pressure. The three-month tin contract closed at $36,860/mt, down $40 or 0.11% from the previous session. Cautious sentiment in the LME tin market mainly stemmed from the relatively strong performance of the US dollar index near the 99.5 level and collective declines in the three major US stock indices, particularly led by tech stocks, which cooled market risk appetite. Investors awaited guidance from key macro indicators such as the US Fed's decision and non-farm payrolls data. These factors collectively contributed to the fluctuating pattern of LME tin prices.

Looking ahead to the afternoon session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate around the key level of 290,000 yuan/mt. On the macro front, delayed US economic data releases following the end of the government shutdown are set to be announced, which may increase market uncertainty, while the US dollar index fluctuating at highs will continue to pressure the metals sector. However, the tight supply-demand fundamentals remain unchanged, with global visible inventory at a ten-year low and demand prospects in emerging sectors optimistic. These factors will jointly limit the downside room for tin prices.